Value bet: D. La Serena to win @ 2.45 – our chance 48% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultD. La Serena to win ✗48% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33
D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: D. La Serena v Universidad de Concepcion in the Primera División, played at La Portada. In the table, D. La Serena are 9th, lower half, on 37 points after 27 matches; Universidad de Concepcion are 15th (in the drop zone) with 26.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give D. La Serena 1.7 xG, Universidad de Concepcion 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – D. La Serena 48%, draw 23%, Universidad de Concepcion 29%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.82.
Price worth noting: D. La Serena to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: D. La Serena 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
D. La Serena48%fair 2.10 · @2.45
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.30
Universidad de Concepcion29%fair 3.43 · @2.75
2.71Expected goals
1.68D. La Serena xG
1.02Universidad de Concepcion xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: D. La Serena 1.7 – 1.0 Universidad de Concepcion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
D. La Serena to win✗
48%
2.10
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.82
Draw no bet
D. La Serena (draw no bet)
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Universidad de Concepcion +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.08
First team to score
D. La Serena to score first
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT D. La Serena / FT D. La Serena✗
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
D. La Serena
No recent results on record.
Universidad de Concepcion – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Concepción
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between D. La Serena and Universidad de Concepcion.
What is the prediction for D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
On our numbers D. La Serena have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Universidad de Concepcion 29%.
How many goals will there be in D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Our predicted score is D. La Serena 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at La Portada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
