Concepción vs D. La Serena: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Concepción welcome D. La Serena to Municipal de Collao for a Primera División fixture on Sunday 19 April (01:00 WAT). In the table, Concepción are 8th, upper half, on 38 points after 27 matches; D. La Serena are 9th (lower half) with 37. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Concepción, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Union La Calera, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
D. La Serena, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to A. Italiano, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours D. La Serena, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.2 for Concepción.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Concepción 1.3 xG, D. La Serena 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Concepción 39%, draw 26%, D. La Serena 35%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Concepción 1–1 D. La Serena. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Concepción39%fair 2.58 · @2.58
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.20
D. La Serena35%fair 2.84 · @2.58
2.43Expected goals
1.33Concepción xG
1.10D. La Serena xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Concepción 1.3 – 1.1 D. La Serena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concepción to win✗
39%
2.58
2.58
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.80
Draw no bet
Concepción (draw no bet)
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
D. La Serena +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Concepción to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concepción / FT Concepción✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.66
–
Recent results
Concepción – last 6
LLLLLD
14 Apr
@ Union La Calera
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Coquimbo Unido
1–2
L
25 Mar
vs Colo Colo
1–3
L
14 Mar
@ A. Italiano
0–3
L
7 Mar
vs Nublense
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Cobresal
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
D. La Serena – last 6
LDDWWD
26 Mar
@ A. Italiano
1–3
L
20 Mar
@ Universidad de Chile
2–2
D
16 Mar
@ Nublense
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Union La Calera
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Cobresal
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Universidad de Concepcion
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concepción and D. La Serena.
What is the prediction for Concepción vs D. La Serena?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Concepción vs D. La Serena?
On our numbers Concepción have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and D. La Serena 35%.
How many goals will there be in Concepción vs D. La Serena?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concepción vs D. La Serena?
Our predicted score is Concepción 1–1 D. La Serena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Concepción vs D. La Serena?
Concepción vs D. La Serena (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Collao.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
