Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Saturday 2 May: Once Caldas v Atletico Nacional in the Primera A, played at Estadio Palogrande. In the table, Once Caldas are 8th, upper half, on 27 points after 18 matches; Atletico Nacional are 1st (leading the league) with 39. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Once Caldas, last 5: WDDDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Internacional de Bogota, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Atletico Nacional, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Bucaramanga, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Atletico Nacional, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Once Caldas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Once Caldas 1.2 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Once Caldas 32%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional 41%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Once Caldas 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Once Caldas32%fair 3.14 · @2.90
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.25
Atletico Nacional41%fair 2.42 · @2.40
2.60Expected goals
1.20Once Caldas xG
1.39Atletico Nacional xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.2 – 1.4 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
Attack vs Primera A average
-5%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
-19%
Our expected goals here
1.13
1.29
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✗
41%
2.42
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.73
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Once Caldas +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.48
–
Recent results
Once Caldas – last 6
WDDDLD
21 Apr
vs Internacional de Bogota
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Deportivo Pereira
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
1–1
D
30 Mar
@ Llaneros
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Millonarios
1–4
L
19 Mar
@ Bucaramanga
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 6
WWWDWW
21 Apr
vs Bucaramanga
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ Independiente Medellin
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Jaguares
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Cucuta
0–0
D
30 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Internacional de Bogota
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Once Caldas and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atletico Nacional 41%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
