Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Samtredia to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSamtredia to win ✓62% · @1.80
Double chanceSamtredia or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗7% · fair 13.95
Samtredia vs Gareji: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Samtredia v Gareji in the Erovnuli Liga 2, played at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium. In the table, Samtredia are 4th, among the top four, on 46 points after 32 matches; Gareji are 1st (leading the league) with 57.
Current form
Samtredia, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Telavi, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Gareji, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Sioni, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Samtredia, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.3 for Gareji.
Head to head
When they last met (30 May 2026) it ended Gareji 3–2 Samtredia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Samtredia 1.9 xG, Gareji 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Samtredia 62%, draw 22%, Gareji 17%.
Lower-risk option: Samtredia or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Samtredia to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Samtredia or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Samtredia 1–0 Gareji. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Samtredia62%fair 1.62 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.60
Gareji17%fair 5.97 · @3.60
2.72Expected goals
1.87Samtredia xG
0.85Gareji xG
47%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Samtredia 1.9 – 0.8 Gareji expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Samtredia or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Samtredia vs Gareji?
On our numbers Samtredia have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gareji 17%.
How many goals will there be in Samtredia vs Gareji?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samtredia vs Gareji?
Our predicted score is Samtredia 1–0 Gareji, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Samtredia vs Gareji?
Samtredia vs Gareji (Erovnuli Liga 2) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
