UTC Cajamarca 53%Draw 24%Alianza Atletico 22%Expected goals 1.58 – 1.08
76%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.20
8/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultUTC Cajamarca to win53% · @1.80
Double chanceUTC Cajamarca or draw78% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.60
UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the Primera División brings UTC Cajamarca against Alianza Atletico at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, UTC Cajamarca are 18th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 16 matches; Alianza Atletico are 7th (upper half) with 28. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
UTC Cajamarca, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Universitario, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Alianza Atletico, last 4: WDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Deportivo Garcilaso, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UTC Cajamarca 1.6 xG, Alianza Atletico 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UTC Cajamarca 53%, draw 24%, Alianza Atletico 22%.
Lower-risk option: UTC Cajamarca or draw (78%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UTC Cajamarca53%fair 1.88 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.30
Alianza Atletico22%fair 4.47 · @4.70
2.66Expected goals
1.58UTC Cajamarca xG
1.08Alianza Atletico xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: UTC Cajamarca 1.6 – 1.1 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
Attack vs Primera División average
-12%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
+20%
Our expected goals here
1.84
1.55
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UTC Cajamarca to win
53%
1.88
1.80
Double chance
UTC Cajamarca or draw
78%
1.29
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
UTC Cajamarca (draw no bet)
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Atletico +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.13
1.05
First team to score
UTC Cajamarca to score first
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UTC Cajamarca / FT UTC Cajamarca
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
UTC Cajamarca – last 3
LDW
15 Mar
@ Universitario
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ ADT
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Cusco
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alianza Atletico – last 4
WDDD
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Alianza Lima
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UTC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico.
What is the prediction for UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers UTC Cajamarca have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Atletico 22%.
How many goals will there be in UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?
UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
