Universitario 44%Draw 27%Alianza Lima 29%Expected goals 1.40 – 1.06
67%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUniversitario to win ✓44% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Universitario vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Lima travel to face Universitario on Sunday 5 April in the Primera División, with Estadio Monumental the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Universitario are 3rd, among the top four, on 32 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Universitario, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over UTC Cajamarca, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Alianza Lima, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Juan Pablo II College, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Universitario, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.2 for Alianza Lima.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Universitario 1.4 xG, Alianza Lima 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Universitario 44%, draw 27%, Alianza Lima 29%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Universitario 1–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Universitario44%fair 2.25 · @2.22
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @3.05
Alianza Lima29%fair 3.45 · @3.40
2.46Expected goals
1.40Universitario xG
1.06Alianza Lima xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: Universitario 1.4 – 1.1 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Universitario
Alianza Lima
Attack vs Primera División average
+36%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-31%
Our expected goals here
1.64
1.24
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universitario to win✓
44%
2.25
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Universitario (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Lima +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Universitario to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universitario / FT Universitario✗
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.29
–
Recent results
Universitario – last 3
WWW
15 Mar
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
2 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 5
WDWWD
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
1.4Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universitario and Alianza Lima.
What is the prediction for Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Universitario have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alianza Lima 29%.
How many goals will there be in Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Universitario 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
Universitario vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
