Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Deportivo Garcilaso to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Garcilaso to win ✓60% · @1.90
Double chanceDeportivo Garcilaso or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.15
Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Primera División brings Deportivo Garcilaso against UTC Cajamarca at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Kick-off: 19:15 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th, among the top four, on 29 points after 16 matches; UTC Cajamarca are 18th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportivo Garcilaso, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Alianza Atletico, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
UTC Cajamarca, last 5: LLDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to FC Cajamarca, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Garcilaso, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for UTC Cajamarca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Garcilaso 2.0 xG, UTC Cajamarca 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Garcilaso 60%, draw 22%, UTC Cajamarca 18%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (82%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Garcilaso to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC Cajamarca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Garcilaso60%fair 1.66 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.35
UTC Cajamarca18%fair 5.63 · @4.10
2.89Expected goals
2.03Deportivo Garcilaso xG
0.86UTC Cajamarca xG
54%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 2.0 – 0.9 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
Attack vs Primera División average
+16%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+25%
Our expected goals here
2.52
0.84
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Garcilaso to win✓
60%
1.66
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.80
Draw no bet
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Garcilaso -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.09
First team to score
Deportivo Garcilaso to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Deportivo Garcilaso ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Garcilaso / FT Deportivo Garcilaso✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.15
–
Recent results
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6
WWWLLD
11 May
vs Alianza Atletico
2–1
W
4 May
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–0
W
28 Apr
vs FBC Melgar
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ Universitario
1–4
L
18 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Alianza Lima
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
LLDLDW
8 May
vs FC Cajamarca
1–2
L
4 May
@ FBC Melgar
0–2
L
15 Apr
vs Sport Huancayo
2–2
D
15 Mar
@ Universitario
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ ADT
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Cusco
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Garcilaso and UTC Cajamarca.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Deportivo Garcilaso or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and UTC Cajamarca 18%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
