Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✓65% · @1.55
Double chanceFBC Melgar or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FBC Melgar welcome Alianza Atletico to Estadio de la UNSA for a Primera División fixture on Sunday 31 May (17:00 WAT). In the table, FBC Melgar are 5th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; Alianza Atletico are 7th (upper half) with 28. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
FBC Melgar, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Juan Pablo II College, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Alianza Atletico, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Tigre, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours FBC Melgar, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.3 for Alianza Atletico.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FBC Melgar 2.0 xG, Alianza Atletico 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FBC Melgar 65%, draw 21%, Alianza Atletico 14%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: FBC Melgar 2–0 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FBC Melgar65%fair 1.55 · @1.55
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.80
Alianza Atletico14%fair 6.95 · @6.20
2.88Expected goals
2.02FBC Melgar xG
0.86Alianza Atletico xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 2.0 – 0.9 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
Attack vs Primera División average
+13%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
+20%
Our expected goals here
2.37
1.04
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✓
65%
1.55
1.55
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
FBC Melgar (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.09
First team to score
FBC Melgar to score first✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
FBC Melgar – last 6
DWLWWD
22 May
@ Juan Pablo II College
1–1
D
4 May
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
28 Apr
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Universitario
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Sport Boys
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alianza Atletico – last 6
LDDLLL
29 May
@ Tigre
0–2
L
24 May
vs FC Cajamarca
1–1
D
22 May
@ Macara
0–0
D
11 May
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–2
L
7 May
vs America de Cali
0–2
L
1 May
vs Macara
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and Alianza Atletico.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Alianza Atletico 14%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 2–0 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
