Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAcademica to win56% · @1.60
Double chanceAcademica or draw79% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.24
Academica vs Varzim: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Varzim travel to face Academica on Sunday 3 May in the Liga 3 – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.
Current form
Academica, last 3: DLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with União Santarém, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Academica 1.7 xG, Varzim 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Academica 56%, draw 23%, Varzim 21%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Academica 1–1 Varzim. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Academica56%fair 1.79 · @1.60
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.50
Varzim21%fair 4.70 · @5.25
2.80Expected goals
1.74Academica xG
1.05Varzim xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
0–06%
From our goals model: Academica 1.7 – 1.1 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Academica to win
56%
1.79
1.60
Double chance
Academica or draw
79%
1.27
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Academica (draw no bet)
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Varzim +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
50%
1.99
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Academica to score first
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Academica / FT Academica
33%
3.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Academica – last 3
DLD
26 Apr
@ União Santarém
1–1
D
4 Apr
@ Guimaraes B
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Amarante
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Varzim – last 2
LL
11 Apr
vs Mafra
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Mafra
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Academica and Varzim.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Academica vs Varzim?
On our numbers Academica have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Varzim 21%.
How many goals will there be in Academica vs Varzim?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Academica vs Varzim?
Our predicted score is Academica 1–1 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Academica vs Varzim?
Academica vs Varzim (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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