Paredes 45%Draw 25%AD Marco 09 31%Expected goals 1.47 – 0.90
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Paredes to win @ 2.95 – our chance 45% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultParedes to win45% · @2.95
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.00
Paredes vs AD Marco 09: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Paredes welcome AD Marco 09 to Municipal das Laranjeiras for a Liga 3 fixture on Sunday 3 May (16:30 WAT). In the table, Paredes are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 9 matches; AD Marco 09 are 3rd (among the top four) with 14.
Current form
Paredes, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fafe, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
AD Marco 09, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Fafe, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Feb 2026) it ended AD Marco 09 0–2 Paredes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paredes 1.5 xG, AD Marco 09 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paredes 45%, draw 25%, AD Marco 09 31%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Paredes to win @2.95 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paredes 1–0 AD Marco 09. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paredes45%fair 2.24 · @2.95
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.10
AD Marco 0931%fair 3.26 · @2.30
2.37Expected goals
1.47Paredes xG
0.90AD Marco 09 xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Paredes 1.5 – 0.9 AD Marco 09 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
On our numbers Paredes have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AD Marco 09 31%.
How many goals will there be in Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
Our predicted score is Paredes 1–0 AD Marco 09, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
Paredes vs AD Marco 09 (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal das Laranjeiras.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
SC Braga B
Sanjoanense
Academica