Value bet: Madureira to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMadureira to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceMadureira or draw ✓81% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.74
Baré vs Madureira: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Baré welcome Madureira for a Copa Do Brasil fixture on Wednesday 18 February (21:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Baré 0.8 xG, Madureira 1.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Baré 19%, draw 21%, Madureira 60%.
Lower-risk option: Madureira or draw (81%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Madureira to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Baré 0–1 Madureira. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Baré19%fair 5.34 · @4.40
Draw21%fair 4.65 · @3.25
Madureira60%fair 1.67 · @1.80
2.42Expected goals
0.77Baré xG
1.65Madureira xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
1–07%
From our goals model: Baré 0.8 – 1.6 Madureira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Madureira to win✓
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Madureira or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.93
Draw no bet
Madureira (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Baré +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Madureira to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Madureira / FT Madureira✓
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
Baré
No recent results on record.
Madureira – last 1
W
13 Feb
vs Boavista SC
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baré and Madureira.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Baré vs Madureira?
On our numbers Baré have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Madureira 60%.
How many goals will there be in Baré vs Madureira?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Baré vs Madureira?
Our predicted score is Baré 0–1 Madureira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Baré vs Madureira?
Baré vs Madureira (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 18 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Porto BA2
Serra Branca1
Maguary PE1
Laguna0
Araguaína0
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