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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Castanhal v Guarani Campinas: numbers & prediction

Copa Do Brasil · Brazil · Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho

Castanhal

LWL
1–1
–Pens 4–3

Guarani Campinas

D
Castanhal 17%Draw 53%Guarani Campinas 30% Expected goals 0.94 – 1.19
83%
Betarazi pick

Guarani Campinas or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.25Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 53% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +60%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultDraw ✓53% · @3.00
Double chanceGuarani Campinas or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13% · fair 7.52

Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Castanhal welcome Guarani Campinas to Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho for a Copa Do Brasil fixture on Wednesday 25 February (19:30 WAT).

Current form

Castanhal, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Paysandu, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Castanhal 0.9 xG, Guarani Campinas 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Castanhal 17%, draw 53%, Guarani Campinas 30%.
  • Lower-risk option: Guarani Campinas or draw (83%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 53%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Guarani Campinas or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castanhal 0–1 Guarani Campinas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Castanhal17%fair 5.90 · @3.60
Draw53%fair 1.87 · @3.00
Guarani Campinas30%fair 3.37 · @2.08
2.13Expected goals
0.94Castanhal xG
1.19Guarani Campinas xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%

From our goals model: Castanhal 0.9 – 1.2 Guarani Campinas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDraw ✓53%1.873.00 ▲
Double chanceGuarani Campinas or draw ✓83%1.201.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓51%1.972.10 ▲
Draw no betGuarani Campinas (draw no bet)64%1.57–
Asian handicapCastanhal +1 (Asian handicap) ✓76%1.31–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓62%1.601.50
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓64%1.561.45
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82%1.211.15
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓94%1.07–
First team to scoreGuarani Campinas to score first49%2.03–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓48%2.08–
Half-time / full-timeHT Guarani Campinas / FT Guarani Campinas ✗24%4.21–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13%7.52–

Recent results

Castanhal – last 3

LWL
22 Feb@ Paysandu0–1L
19 Feb@ Capitao Poco1–0W
15 Feb@ Capitao Poco0–2L
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Guarani Campinas – last 1

D
16 Feb@ Palmeiras1–1D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Castanhal and Guarani Campinas.

Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas head-to-head page →

More Copa Do Brasil predictions

League hub
FT America-RN3 GAS0 169%1.16X18%6.40213%14.50 2.2–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓
– Juazeirense1 Capital Brasilia1 Pens 1–3 130%2.36X38%2.90232%3.10 1.1–1.3xG X2Capital Brasilia or draw 70%@1.53 ✓
FT Novorizontino4 Nacional AM0 163%1.23X23%4.80214%14.00 1.6–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✗
FT Londrina1 Penedense0 173%1.20X21%5.2026%15.50 2.2–0.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✗
FT Retrô1 Uberlandia2 133%2.08X38%3.15229%3.40 1.1–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT São Luiz0 Maranhão1 139%2.08X39%3.00223%3.60 1.2–0.9xG 1XSão Luiz or draw 77%@1.25 ✗
– Tombense1 Oratório1 Pens 3–2 165%1.22X20%5.40215%12.00 2.0–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Anápolis3 Cianorte1 146%2.18X27%3.10228%3.25 1.4–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas?

Our pick is Guarani Campinas or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas?

On our numbers Castanhal have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Guarani Campinas 30%.

How many goals will there be in Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas?

Our predicted score is Castanhal 0–1 Guarani Campinas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas?

Castanhal vs Guarani Campinas (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.