Benfica 37%Draw 24%Real Madrid 40%Expected goals 1.59 – 1.55
80%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Benfica to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultReal Madrid to win ✓40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.11
Benfica vs Real Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 17 February the UEFA Champions League brings Benfica against Real Madrid at Estádio da Luz. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benfica 1.6 xG, Real Madrid 1.5 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benfica 37%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 40%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Benfica to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benfica 1–1 Real Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benfica37%fair 2.71 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.55
Real Madrid40%fair 2.53 · @2.15
3.14Expected goals
1.59Benfica xG
1.55Real Madrid xG
65%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–27%
From our goals model: Benfica 1.6 – 1.5 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
40%
2.53
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.55
1.55
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Real Madrid +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.18
First team to score
Benfica to score first✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.59
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.11
–
Recent results
Benfica – last 1
W
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Real Madrid
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Benfica vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Benfica have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real Madrid 40%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Benfica 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Benfica vs Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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