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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund: numbers & prediction

UEFA Champions League · Europe · New Balance Arena

Atalanta

WL
4–1
FT

Borussia Dortmund

WW
Atalanta 35%Draw 23%Borussia Dortmund 42% Expected goals 1.29 – 1.70
79%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2

Value bet: Borussia Dortmund to win @ 2.94 – our chance 42% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBorussia Dortmund to win ✗42% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.68

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Borussia Dortmund travel to face Atalanta on Wednesday 25 February in the UEFA Champions League, with New Balance Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 18:45 WAT.

Head to head

When they last met (17 Feb 2026) it ended Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Atalanta.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atalanta 1.3 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.7 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Atalanta 35%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 42%.
  • GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.57.
  • Price worth noting: Borussia Dortmund to win @2.94 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 42%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atalanta 1–1 Borussia Dortmund. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atalanta35%fair 2.87 · @2.16
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.75
Borussia Dortmund42%fair 2.39 · @2.94
2.99Expected goals
1.29Atalanta xG
1.70Borussia Dortmund xG
65%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–07%

From our goals model: Atalanta 1.3 – 1.7 Borussia Dortmund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBorussia Dortmund to win ✗42%2.392.94 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓65%1.551.57
Draw no betBorussia Dortmund (draw no bet) ✗55%1.83–
Asian handicapAtalanta +1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79%1.261.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓57%1.751.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗65%1.541.45
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗81%1.241.18
First team to scoreBorussia Dortmund to score first ✗54%1.85–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗40%2.53–
Half-time / full-timeHT Borussia Dortmund / FT Borussia Dortmund ✗28%3.51–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.68–

Recent results

Atalanta – last 2

WL
22 Febvs Napoli2–1W
17 Feb@ Borussia Dortmund0–2L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund – last 2

WW
17 Febvs Atalanta2–0W
13 Febvs FSV Mainz 054–0W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund v Atalanta2–0
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head page →

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain4400+1512
2Real Madrid4400+612
3Arsenal4310+510
4Como4301+139
5Barcelona4301+89
6Aston Villa4301+69
7Manchester City4301+59
8Liverpool4301+49
9Club Brugge KV4301+49
10Sporting CP4301+49
11Real Betis4301+29
12Borussia Dortmund4301+29
13Bayern München4220+78
14VfB Stuttgart4211+37
15Inter4202+26
16Lask Linz4202+16
17Manchester United420206
18Galatasaray4202-16
19Fenerbahçe4121-55
20AS Roma4112+24
21Shakhtar Donetsk411204
22Viking4112-14
23Atletico Madrid4112-14
24PSV Eindhoven4112-14
25Bodo/Glimt4112-54
26FC Porto4103-13
27Napoli4103-53
28Villarreal4103-63
29AEK Athens FC4103-63
30RB Leipzig4103-63
31Sabah FA4103-63
32Feyenoord4103-73
33Lens4103-123
34Slavia Praha4013-41
35Lille4013-61
36Slovan Bratislava4004-160

More UEFA Champions League predictions

League hub
FT Juventus3 Galatasaray0 AET 3–2 158%1.45X22%4.65219%6.00 2.0–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.50 ✗
FT Paris Saint Germain2 Monaco2 167%1.27X17%6.50216%7.90 2.4–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 72%@1.28 ✓
FT Real Madrid2 Benfica1 156%1.53X22%4.50222%5.10 1.9–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 64%@1.57 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?

On our numbers Atalanta have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Borussia Dortmund 42%.

How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–1 Borussia Dortmund, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.