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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Real Madrid v Benfica: numbers & prediction

UEFA Champions League · Europe · Bernabéu

Benfica

Real Madrid 56%Draw 22%Benfica 22% Expected goals 1.92 – 1.27

64%

Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓

6/10Rating

1.57Odds

Picks by market

ResultReal Madrid to win ✓56% · @1.53

Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.15

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.57

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.38

Real Madrid vs Benfica: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 25 February the UEFA Champions League brings Real Madrid against Benfica at Bernabéu. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT.

Head to head

When they last met (17 Feb 2026) it ended Benfica 0–1 Real Madrid.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Real Madrid 1.9 xG, Benfica 1.3 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 64%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Real Madrid 56%, draw 22%, Benfica 22%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.57.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Madrid 1–1 Benfica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Real Madrid56%fair 1.78 · @1.53

Draw22%fair 4.58 · @4.50

Benfica22%fair 4.53 · @5.10

3.19Expected goals

1.92Real Madrid xG

1.27Benfica xG

64%Both score

62%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

2–110%

1–08%

2–08%

1–26%

3–16%

From our goals model: Real Madrid 1.9 – 1.3 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Real Madrid to win ✓	56%	1.78	1.53
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	78%	1.28	1.15
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	64%	1.56	1.57
Draw no bet	Real Madrid (draw no bet) ✓	72%	1.39	–
Asian handicap	Benfica +1 (Asian handicap)	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	82%	1.21	1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	62%	1.60	1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	59%	1.69	1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	77%	1.30	1.25
First team to score	Real Madrid to score first	58%	1.74	–
Half-time result	Real Madrid ahead at half-time ✗	40%	2.52	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid ✗	33%	3.07	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✓	10%	10.38	–

Recent results

Real Madrid – last 1

17 Feb

@ Benfica

1–0

1.0Scored / game

0.0Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Benfica – last 2

17 Feb	vs Real Madrid	0–1	L
13 Feb	@ Santa Clara	2–1	W

1.0Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Feb 2026

Benfica v Real Madrid

0–1

Real Madrid vs Benfica head-to-head page →

UEFA Champions League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0

More UEFA Champions League predictions

League hub

Atalanta4

Borussia Dortmund1 135%2.16X23%3.75242%2.94 1.3–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓

Juventus3

Galatasaray0 AET 3–2 158%1.45X22%4.65219%6.00 2.0–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.50 ✗

Paris Saint Germain2

Monaco2 167%1.27X17%6.50216%7.90 2.4–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 72%@1.28 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Real Madrid vs Benfica?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win Real Madrid vs Benfica?

On our numbers Real Madrid have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Benfica 22%.

How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Benfica?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Benfica?

Our predicted score is Real Madrid 1–1 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is Real Madrid vs Benfica?

Real Madrid vs Benfica (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Bernabéu.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.