Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✗51% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 7 March the Virsliga brings BFC Daugavpils against Grobiņa at Stadions Celtnieks. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; Grobiņa are 8th (in the drop zone) with 29. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 1.8 xG, Grobiņa 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 51%, draw 24%, Grobiņa 25%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: BFC Daugavpils to win @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 1–1 Grobiņa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils51%fair 1.96 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.45
Grobiņa25%fair 3.95 · @2.95
2.69Expected goals
1.75BFC Daugavpils xG
0.94Grobiņa xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.8 – 0.9 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFC Daugavpils to win✗
51%
1.96
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.48
Draw no bet
BFC Daugavpils (draw no bet)✗
67%
1.50
–
Asian handicap
Grobiņa +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.22
First team to score
BFC Daugavpils to score first✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.23
–
Recent results
BFC Daugavpils – last 1
L
14 Feb
@ Suduva Marijampole
3–5
L
3.0Scored / game
5.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Grobiņa – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Hegelmann Litauen
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and Grobiņa.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Grobiņa 25%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–1 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
