Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 53% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win ✗79% · @1.08
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓93% · fair 1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.12
Riga vs Tukums: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Riga welcome Tukums to Skonto stadions for a Virsliga fixture on Thursday 9 April (17:00 WAT). In the table, Riga are 2nd, among the top four, on 83 points after 35 matches; Tukums are 9th (in the drop zone) with 25. There are 58 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Riga, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Auda, away. 3.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Tukums, last 4: DLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Grobiņa, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.5 for Tukums.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Riga 2.9 xG, Tukums 0.8 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 53% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Riga 79%, draw 13%, Tukums 7%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.40.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Riga 3–0 Tukums. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Riga79%fair 1.26 · @1.08
Draw13%fair 7.56 · @7.60
Tukums7%fair 13.49 · @23.00
3.63Expected goals
2.88Riga xG
0.75Tukums xG
53%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
3–011%
2–18%
3–18%
1–08%
4–08%
From our goals model: Riga 2.9 – 0.8 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✗
79%
1.26
1.08
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
93%
1.08
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.40 ▲
Draw no bet
Riga (draw no bet)
91%
1.09
–
Asian handicap
Riga -1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.40
First team to score
Riga to score first
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✗
57%
1.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.12
–
Recent results
Riga – last 3
WWW
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tukums – last 4
DLDL
5 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Riga and Tukums.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Riga vs Tukums?
On our numbers Riga have a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Tukums 7%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Tukums?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is Riga 3–0 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Tukums?
Riga vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
