Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗54% · @1.73
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Tukums vs FK Liepaja: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:30 WAT, Friday 17 April: Tukums v FK Liepaja in the Virsliga. In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; FK Liepaja are 5th (upper half) with 51. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tukums, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Rīgas FS, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
FK Liepaja, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Auda, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours FK Liepaja, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.5 for Tukums.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 1.1 xG, FK Liepaja 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 21%, draw 25%, FK Liepaja 54%.
Lower-risk option: FK Liepaja or draw (79%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 1–1 FK Liepaja. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums21%fair 4.67 · @4.00
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.75
FK Liepaja54%fair 1.85 · @1.73
2.78Expected goals
1.08Tukums xG
1.70FK Liepaja xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.1 – 1.7 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Liepaja to win✗
54%
1.85
1.73
Double chance
FK Liepaja or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.50
Draw no bet
FK Liepaja (draw no bet)
72%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Tukums +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.53
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
FK Liepaja to score first✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Liepaja / FT FK Liepaja✗
32%
3.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
Tukums – last 6
LDDLDL
13 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
1–2
L
9 Apr
@ Riga
3–3
D
5 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FK Liepaja – last 5
LLWLW
8 Apr
vs Auda
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs FS Jelgava
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and FK Liepaja.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers Tukums have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FK Liepaja 54%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Tukums vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
