Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win ✓74% · @1.22
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓91% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.82
Grobiņa vs Riga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Saturday 18 April: Grobiņa v Riga in the Virsliga. In the table, Grobiņa are 8th, in the drop zone, on 29 points after 36 matches; Riga are 2nd (among the top four) with 83. There are 54 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Grobiņa, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Ogre United, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Riga, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Super Nova, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.6 points per game to 1.0 for Grobiņa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Grobiņa 0.8 xG, Riga 2.4 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 55% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Grobiņa 9%, draw 17%, Riga 74%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Riga to win (74%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Grobiņa 0–2 Riga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Grobiņa9%fair 11.18 · @11.00
Draw17%fair 5.80 · @5.10
Riga74%fair 1.35 · @1.22
3.21Expected goals
0.77Grobiņa xG
2.44Riga xG
55%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–212%
0–110%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–38%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 0.8 – 2.4 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Riga (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Riga -1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Riga to score first✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
50%
1.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.82
–
Recent results
Grobiņa – last 5
DLDWL
13 Apr
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Super Nova
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Hegelmann Litauen
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Riga – last 5
WDWWW
14 Apr
@ Super Nova
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Tukums
3–3
D
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grobiņa and Riga.
Our pick is Riga to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Grobiņa vs Riga?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Riga 74%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs Riga?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs Riga?
Grobiņa vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
