BFC Daugavpils 54%Draw 27%Super Nova 20%Expected goals 1.66 – 0.87
80%
Betarazi pick
BFC Daugavpils or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✗54% · @1.91
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✗80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.48
BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
BFC Daugavpils welcome Super Nova to Stadions Celtnieks for a Virsliga fixture on Monday 27 April (16:00 WAT). In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; Super Nova are 6th (lower half) with 40. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tukums, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Super Nova, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to FK Liepaja, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 1.7 xG, Super Nova 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 54%, draw 27%, Super Nova 20%.
Lower-risk option: BFC Daugavpils or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was BFC Daugavpils or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Super Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils54%fair 1.86 · @1.91
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.40
Super Nova20%fair 5.11 · @3.50
2.53Expected goals
1.66BFC Daugavpils xG
0.87Super Nova xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.7 – 0.9 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFC Daugavpils to win✗
54%
1.86
1.91
Double chance
BFC Daugavpils or draw✗
80%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.70
Draw no bet
BFC Daugavpils (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Super Nova +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
BFC Daugavpils to score first✗
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.48
–
Recent results
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
DWWWWL
21 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs FS Jelgava
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–0
W
7 Mar
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Super Nova – last 6
LLWWWD
23 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Riga
1–4
L
9 Apr
@ Grobiņa
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Ogre United
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Tukums
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs FS Jelgava
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
Our pick is BFC Daugavpils or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Super Nova 20%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
