Tukums vs FS Jelgava: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 1 May the Virsliga brings Tukums against FS Jelgava. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; FS Jelgava are 7th (lower half) with 35.
Current form
Tukums, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Auda, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
FS Jelgava, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Ogre United, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours FS Jelgava, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Tukums.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Mar 2026) it ended FS Jelgava 2–1 Tukums.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 1.3 xG, FS Jelgava 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 33%, draw 25%, FS Jelgava 42%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.21). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 1–1 FS Jelgava. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums33%fair 3.02 · @2.80
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.30
FS Jelgava42%fair 2.40 · @2.23
2.78Expected goals
1.30Tukums xG
1.48FS Jelgava xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.3 – 1.5 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers Tukums have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FS Jelgava 42%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
Tukums vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
