BFC Daugavpils 16%Draw 22%Riga 62%Expected goals 1.07 – 1.95
61%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win ✓62% · @1.28
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓84% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.08
BFC Daugavpils vs Riga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 8 May the Virsliga brings BFC Daugavpils against Riga at Stadions Celtnieks. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; Riga are 2nd (among the top four) with 83. There are 31 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Grobiņa, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Riga, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FK Liepaja, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for BFC Daugavpils.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 1.1 xG, Riga 1.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 16%, draw 22%, Riga 62%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (61%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 1–1 Riga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils16%fair 6.18 · @8.80
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @5.00
Riga62%fair 1.61 · @1.28
3.02Expected goals
1.07BFC Daugavpils xG
1.95Riga xG
57%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.1 – 1.9 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✓
62%
1.61
1.28
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Riga (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
BFC Daugavpils +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.25
First team to score
Riga to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
DLDWWW
2 May
@ Grobiņa
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Super Nova
0–1
L
21 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs FS Jelgava
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Riga – last 6
WDWWWD
3 May
vs FK Liepaja
1–0
W
28 Apr
@ Rīgas FS
3–3
D
22 Apr
vs Ogre United
4–0
W
18 Apr
@ Grobiņa
3–0
W
14 Apr
@ Super Nova
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Tukums
3–3
D
3.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and Riga.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Riga 62%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–1 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
BFC Daugavpils vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
