Super Nova vs Tukums: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Monday 11 May: Super Nova v Tukums in the Virsliga, played at Slokas Stadions. In the table, Super Nova are 6th, lower half, on 40 points after 36 matches; Tukums are 9th (in the drop zone) with 25. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Super Nova, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FS Jelgava, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Tukums, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 6–1 win over Ogre United, at home. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended Tukums 1–2 Super Nova.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Super Nova 1.4 xG, Tukums 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Super Nova 38%, draw 26%, Tukums 37%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Super Nova 1–1 Tukums. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Super Nova38%fair 2.65 · @2.80
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.40
Tukums37%fair 2.73 · @2.25
2.68Expected goals
1.44Super Nova xG
1.23Tukums xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Super Nova 1.4 – 1.2 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Super Nova vs Tukums?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tukums 37%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs Tukums?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 1–1 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs Tukums?
Super Nova vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Slokas Stadions.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
