Super Nova 9%Draw 19%Rīgas FS 72%Expected goals 0.71 – 2.14
63%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRīgas FS to win ✓72% · @1.18
Double chanceRīgas FS or draw ✓91% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.62
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 29 May the Virsliga brings Super Nova against Rīgas FS at LNK Sporta Parks. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Super Nova are 6th, lower half, on 40 points after 36 matches; Rīgas FS are 1st (leading the league) with 89. There are 49 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Super Nova, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Riga, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Rīgas FS, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Tukums, at home. The attack is flying at 3.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Rīgas FS, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Super Nova.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Super Nova 0.7 xG, Rīgas FS 2.1 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Super Nova 9%, draw 19%, Rīgas FS 72%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Super Nova 0–2 Rīgas FS. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Super Nova9%fair 10.61 · @11.00
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @6.25
Rīgas FS72%fair 1.39 · @1.18
2.85Expected goals
0.71Super Nova xG
2.14Rīgas FS xG
51%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–213%
0–112%
0–39%
1–29%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Super Nova 0.7 – 2.1 Rīgas FS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rīgas FS to win✓
72%
1.39
1.18
Double chance
Rīgas FS or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Rīgas FS (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Rīgas FS -1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
First team to score
Rīgas FS to score first
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Rīgas FS ahead at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rīgas FS / FT Rīgas FS✗
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.62
–
Recent results
Super Nova – last 6
LWDLLW
24 May
@ Riga
0–3
L
20 May
@ Grobiņa
2–0
W
11 May
vs Tukums
1–1
D
6 May
@ FS Jelgava
0–1
L
1 May
vs Auda
1–2
L
27 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Rīgas FS – last 6
WWWWWD
25 May
vs Tukums
3–1
W
21 May
vs FS Jelgava
4–0
W
17 May
@ Auda
3–0
W
13 May
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
8 May
vs FK Liepaja
5–0
W
28 Apr
vs Riga
3–3
D
3.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Super Nova and Rīgas FS.
What is the prediction for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Rīgas FS 72%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 0–2 Rīgas FS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 29 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at LNK Sporta Parks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
