BFC Daugavpils 15%Draw 22%Riga 63%Expected goals 1.08 – 1.99
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.30Odds
U3.5
Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win ✗63% · @1.25
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓85% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
BFC Daugavpils vs Riga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
BFC Daugavpils welcome Riga to Stadions Celtnieks for a Virsliga fixture on Thursday 25 June (16:00 WAT). In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; Riga are 2nd (among the top four) with 83. There are 31 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: WDDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Grobiņa, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Riga, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over FK Liepaja, at home. The attack is flying at 3.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.5 for BFC Daugavpils.
Head to head
When they last met (8 May 2026) it ended BFC Daugavpils 1–3 Riga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 1.1 xG, Riga 2.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 15%, draw 22%, Riga 63%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Under 3.5 goals @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 1–2 Riga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils15%fair 6.58 · @8.80
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @5.40
Riga63%fair 1.59 · @1.25
3.06Expected goals
1.08BFC Daugavpils xG
1.99Riga xG
59%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.1 – 2.0 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Riga 63%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
BFC Daugavpils vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Thursday 25 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
