Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 3.00 – our chance 40% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗40% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.07
Tukums vs FK Liepaja: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tukums welcome FK Liepaja to Daugavas stadions for a Virsliga fixture on Sunday 2 August (14:00 WAT). In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; FK Liepaja are 5th (upper half) with 51. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tukums, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Rīgas FS, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
FK Liepaja, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Austria Vienna, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours FK Liepaja, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.0 for Tukums.
Head to head
When they last met (30 May 2026) it ended FK Liepaja 3–0 Tukums. The last 2 head-to-heads: Tukums 0 wins, FK Liepaja 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 3.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 1.4 xG, FK Liepaja 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 36%, draw 24%, FK Liepaja 40%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.45.
Price worth noting: FK Liepaja to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 1–1 FK Liepaja. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums36%fair 2.76 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.65
FK Liepaja40%fair 2.50 · @3.00
2.97Expected goals
1.36Tukums xG
1.61FK Liepaja xG
64%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.4 – 1.6 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers Tukums have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FK Liepaja 40%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Tukums vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugavas stadions.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
