Tukums 55%Draw 24%Ogre United 21%Expected goals 2.21 – 1.35
79%
Betarazi pick
Tukums or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Tukums to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTukums to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceTukums or draw ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.67
Tukums vs Ogre United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 5 September the Virsliga brings Tukums against Ogre United. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; Ogre United are 10th (in the drop zone) with 19.
Current form
Tukums, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to FS Jelgava, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Ogre United, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Rīgas FS, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Jun 2026) it ended Ogre United 3–2 Tukums. The last 3 head-to-heads: Tukums 1 win, Ogre United 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 4.7 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 2.2 xG, Ogre United 1.4 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 55%, draw 24%, Ogre United 21%.
Lower-risk option: Tukums or draw (79%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Tukums to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tukums or draw (79%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.26, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 2–1 Ogre United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums55%fair 1.83 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.40
Ogre United21%fair 4.80 · @3.20
3.56Expected goals
2.21Tukums xG
1.35Ogre United xG
65%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
2–07%
3–17%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Tukums 2.2 – 1.4 Ogre United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Tukums or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Tukums vs Ogre United?
On our numbers Tukums have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ogre United 21%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Ogre United?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Ogre United?
Our predicted score is Tukums 2–1 Ogre United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Ogre United?
Tukums vs Ogre United (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
