Value bet: FS Jelgava to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFS Jelgava to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
FS Jelgava vs Super Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 5 September: FS Jelgava v Super Nova in the Virsliga, played at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs. In the table, FS Jelgava are 7th, lower half, on 35 points after 36 matches; Super Nova are 6th (lower half) with 40.
Current form
FS Jelgava, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Tukums, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Super Nova, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Auda, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Jun 2026) it ended Super Nova 1–5 FS Jelgava. The last 3 head-to-heads: FS Jelgava 2 wins, Super Nova 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FS Jelgava 1.8 xG, Super Nova 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FS Jelgava 60%, draw 18%, Super Nova 22%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: FS Jelgava to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: FS Jelgava 1–1 Super Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FS Jelgava60%fair 1.66 · @1.95
Draw18%fair 5.58 · @3.40
Super Nova22%fair 4.59 · @3.25
2.73Expected goals
1.80FS Jelgava xG
0.93Super Nova xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: FS Jelgava 1.8 – 0.9 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
On our numbers FS Jelgava have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Super Nova 22%.
How many goals will there be in FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is FS Jelgava 1–1 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
FS Jelgava vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
