Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win ✓68% · @1.20
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.63
Tukums vs Riga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Virsliga brings Tukums against Riga. Kick-off: 12:00 WAT. In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; Riga are 2nd (among the top four) with 83. There are 58 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tukums, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Grobiņa, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Riga, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Aris, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Tukums.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Jul 2026) it ended Riga 3–1 Tukums. The last 3 head-to-heads: Tukums 0 wins, Riga 2, draws 1. Those games averaged 4.7 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 1.0 xG, Riga 2.5 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 69% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 13%, draw 20%, Riga 68%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.61, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 1–2 Riga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums13%fair 7.97 · @11.00
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @6.00
Riga68%fair 1.47 · @1.20
3.56Expected goals
1.05Tukums xG
2.51Riga xG
62%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
0–29%
1–38%
0–38%
1–17%
0–17%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.0 – 2.5 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Tukums vs Riga?
On our numbers Tukums have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Riga 68%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Riga?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Riga?
Tukums vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
