Ogre United 16%Draw 20%BFC Daugavpils 64%Expected goals 0.87 – 1.97
84%
Betarazi pick
BFC Daugavpils or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.14
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ogre United welcome BFC Daugavpils for a Virsliga fixture on Sunday 11 October (12:00 WAT). In the table, Ogre United are 10th, in the drop zone, on 19 points after 36 matches; BFC Daugavpils are 4th (among the top four) with 52. There are 33 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ogre United, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Super Nova, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: DLDDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with FK Liepaja, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Aug 2026) it ended BFC Daugavpils 3–1 Ogre United. The last 4 head-to-heads: Ogre United 0 wins, BFC Daugavpils 4, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.8 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ogre United 0.9 xG, BFC Daugavpils 2.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ogre United 16%, draw 20%, BFC Daugavpils 64%.
Lower-risk option: BFC Daugavpils or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: BFC Daugavpils to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was BFC Daugavpils or draw (84%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ogre United 0–1 BFC Daugavpils. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ogre United16%fair 6.09 · @3.90
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.60
BFC Daugavpils64%fair 1.57 · @1.73
2.84Expected goals
0.87Ogre United xG
1.97BFC Daugavpils xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Ogre United 0.9 – 2.0 BFC Daugavpils expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our pick is BFC Daugavpils or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
On our numbers Ogre United have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and BFC Daugavpils 64%.
How many goals will there be in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our predicted score is Ogre United 0–1 BFC Daugavpils, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
