FK Liepaja 64%Draw 21%FS Jelgava 15%Expected goals 1.94 – 0.81
85%
Betarazi pick
FK Liepaja or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✓64% · @1.70
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 18 October the Virsliga brings FK Liepaja against FS Jelgava at Daugavas stadions. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, FK Liepaja are 5th, upper half, on 51 points after 36 matches; FS Jelgava are 7th (lower half) with 35. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FK Liepaja, last 5: LDDDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Auda, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
FS Jelgava, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Rīgas FS, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Jul 2026) it ended FS Jelgava 0–2 FK Liepaja. The last 3 head-to-heads: FK Liepaja 2 wins, FS Jelgava 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.3 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FK Liepaja 1.9 xG, FS Jelgava 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FK Liepaja 64%, draw 21%, FS Jelgava 15%.
Lower-risk option: FK Liepaja or draw (85%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: FK Liepaja to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FK Liepaja or draw (85%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FK Liepaja 1–0 FS Jelgava. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FK Liepaja64%fair 1.56 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.50
FS Jelgava15%fair 6.86 · @4.20
2.75Expected goals
1.94FK Liepaja xG
0.81FS Jelgava xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: FK Liepaja 1.9 – 0.8 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is FK Liepaja or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers FK Liepaja have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FS Jelgava 15%.
How many goals will there be in FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is FK Liepaja 1–0 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugavas stadions.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
