Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✓65% · @1.73
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.17
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Sunday 8 November: Grobiņa v FK Liepaja in the Virsliga. In the table, Grobiņa are 8th, in the drop zone, on 29 points after 36 matches; FK Liepaja are 5th (upper half) with 51. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Grobiņa, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Rīgas FS, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
FK Liepaja, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Super Nova, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (21 Aug 2026) it ended FK Liepaja 3–1 Grobiņa. The last 3 head-to-heads: Grobiņa 1 win, FK Liepaja 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.3 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Grobiņa 0.9 xG, FK Liepaja 2.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Grobiņa 15%, draw 20%, FK Liepaja 65%.
Lower-risk option: FK Liepaja or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: FK Liepaja to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FK Liepaja or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Grobiņa 0–2 FK Liepaja. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Grobiņa15%fair 6.50 · @3.90
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.70
FK Liepaja65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
2.86Expected goals
0.85Grobiņa xG
2.01FK Liepaja xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–110%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 0.9 – 2.0 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is FK Liepaja or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FK Liepaja 65%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 0–2 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja?
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
