Surkhon v Neftchi Prediction & Expected Goals (5 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultNeftchi to win ✓54% · @1.70

Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✓82% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.31

Surkhon vs Neftchi: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 5 March the Super League brings Surkhon against Neftchi at Stadion Surkhon. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Surkhon are 10th, lower half, on 31 points after 27 matches; Neftchi are 1st (leading the league) with 61. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Surkhon 1.0 xG, Neftchi 1.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Surkhon 18%, draw 28%, Neftchi 54%.
Lower-risk option: Neftchi or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.86, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Surkhon 1–1 Neftchi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Surkhon18%fair 5.58 · @4.60

Draw28%fair 3.57 · @3.10

Neftchi54%fair 1.85 · @1.70

2.67Expected goals

0.97Surkhon xG

1.70Neftchi xG

54%Both score

50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–112%

1–111%

0–210%

1–210%

0–07%

1–07%

From our goals model: Surkhon 1.0 – 1.7 Neftchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Neftchi to win ✓	54%	1.85	1.70
Double chance	Neftchi or draw ✓	82%	1.22	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	54%	1.86	2.00 ▲
Draw no bet	Neftchi (draw no bet) ✓	75%	1.33	–
Asian handicap	Surkhon +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	60%	1.66	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.34	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	50%	1.99	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	72%	1.39	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
First team to score	Neftchi to score first ✓	59%	1.69	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	42%	2.40	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Neftchi / FT Neftchi ✓	33%	2.99	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	10%	10.31	–

Super League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	26	19	4	3	+38	61
2	Pakhtakor	27	17	8	2	+22	59
3	Navbahor	27	16	7	4	+21	55
4	Nasaf	27	12	9	6	+15	45
5	Olmaliq	27	13	6	8	+4	45
6	Lokomotiv	27	12	7	8	+10	43
7	Buxoro	27	12	6	9	+4	42
8	Dinamo Samarqand	27	10	7	10	+2	37
9	Qizilqum	27	10	5	12	-7	35
10	Surkhon	27	7	10	10	-9	31
11	Andijan	27	9	4	14	-6	31
12	Sogdiana	27	8	6	13	-9	30
13	Xorazm	27	6	8	13	-15	26
14	Bunyodkor	26	8	2	16	-16	26
15	Kokand-1912	27	5	9	13	-13	24
16	Mash'al	27	1	2	24	-41	5

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Surkhon vs Neftchi?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.

Who will win Surkhon vs Neftchi?

On our numbers Surkhon have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Neftchi 54%.

How many goals will there be in Surkhon vs Neftchi?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Surkhon vs Neftchi?

Our predicted score is Surkhon 1–1 Neftchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Surkhon vs Neftchi?

Surkhon vs Neftchi (Super League) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Surkhon.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Surkhon v Neftchi: numbers & prediction

Surkhon

Neftchi

Both teams to score