Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNasaf to win ✗56% · @1.67
Double chanceNasaf or draw ✓82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.37
Nasaf vs Buxoro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Buxoro travel to face Nasaf on Monday 13 April in the Super League, with Markaziy Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Nasaf are 4th, among the top four, on 45 points after 27 matches; Buxoro are 7th (upper half) with 42. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nasaf, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Kokand-1912, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Buxoro, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Qizilqum, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Buxoro, collecting 2.6 points per game to 1.8 for Nasaf.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nasaf 1.5 xG, Buxoro 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nasaf 56%, draw 26%, Buxoro 18%.
Lower-risk option: Nasaf or draw (82%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nasaf to win (56%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nasaf 1–0 Buxoro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nasaf56%fair 1.79 · @1.67
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.25
Buxoro18%fair 5.44 · @4.75
2.22Expected goals
1.47Nasaf xG
0.74Buxoro xG
50%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Nasaf 1.5 – 0.7 Buxoro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nasaf to win✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Double chance
Nasaf or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Nasaf (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Buxoro +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Nasaf to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nasaf / FT Nasaf✗
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.37
–
Recent results
Nasaf – last 6
DWLDWW
8 Apr
@ Kokand-1912
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Andijan
1–0
W
20 Mar
vs Surkhon
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Dinamo Samarqand
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Sogdiana
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Xorazm
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Buxoro – last 5
WWDWW
9 Apr
vs Qizilqum
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Dinamo Samarqand
3–1
W
11 Mar
vs Xorazm
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ Navbahor
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Kokand-1912
1–0
W
1.6Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nasaf and Buxoro.
Our pick is Nasaf to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Nasaf vs Buxoro?
On our numbers Nasaf have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Buxoro 18%.
How many goals will there be in Nasaf vs Buxoro?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nasaf vs Buxoro?
Our predicted score is Nasaf 1–0 Buxoro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Nasaf vs Buxoro?
Nasaf vs Buxoro (Super League) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Markaziy Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
