Value bet: Qizilqum to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSogdiana to win ✓38% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.56
Qizilqum vs Sogdiana: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Qizilqum welcome Sogdiana to Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi for a Super League fixture on Monday 13 April (16:15 WAT). In the table, Qizilqum are 9th, lower half, on 35 points after 27 matches; Sogdiana are 12th (lower half) with 30.
Current form
Qizilqum, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Buxoro, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Sogdiana, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Dinamo Samarqand, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Qizilqum, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Sogdiana.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qizilqum 1.5 xG, Sogdiana 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qizilqum 35%, draw 27%, Sogdiana 38%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Qizilqum to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.80, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qizilqum 1–1 Sogdiana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qizilqum35%fair 2.85 · @3.10
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @2.90
Sogdiana38%fair 2.65 · @2.15
2.78Expected goals
1.45Qizilqum xG
1.33Sogdiana xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Qizilqum 1.5 – 1.3 Sogdiana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sogdiana to win✓
38%
2.65
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.85
Draw no bet
Sogdiana (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Sogdiana +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Qizilqum to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qizilqum / FT Qizilqum✗
24%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.56
–
Recent results
Qizilqum – last 5
LLWWL
9 Apr
@ Buxoro
0–2
L
18 Mar
vs Olmaliq
0–1
L
10 Mar
@ Mash'al
2–0
W
4 Mar
vs Andijan
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ Pakhtakor
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Sogdiana – last 6
LDLDLL
8 Apr
@ Dinamo Samarqand
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Kokand-1912
2–2
D
20 Mar
vs Pakhtakor
2–4
L
12 Mar
@ Olmaliq
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Nasaf
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Andijan
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qizilqum and Sogdiana.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Qizilqum vs Sogdiana?
On our numbers Qizilqum have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sogdiana 38%.
How many goals will there be in Qizilqum vs Sogdiana?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qizilqum vs Sogdiana?
Our predicted score is Qizilqum 1–1 Sogdiana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Qizilqum vs Sogdiana?
Qizilqum vs Sogdiana (Super League) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
