Value bet: Nasaf to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNasaf to win ✓45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.27
Bunyodkor vs Nasaf: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 16 July the Super League brings Bunyodkor against Nasaf at Milliy Stadium. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Bunyodkor are 14th, in the drop zone, on 26 points after 26 matches; Nasaf are 4th (among the top four) with 45. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Bunyodkor, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Kokand-1912, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Nasaf, last 5: DDLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Navbahor, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bunyodkor 0.9 xG, Nasaf 1.5 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bunyodkor 29%, draw 26%, Nasaf 45%.
Price worth noting: Nasaf to win @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (58%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bunyodkor 0–1 Nasaf. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bunyodkor29%fair 3.50 · @2.80
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.00
Nasaf45%fair 2.20 · @2.38
2.36Expected goals
0.90Bunyodkor xG
1.46Nasaf xG
44%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–210%
0–09%
1–29%
1–09%
From our goals model: Bunyodkor 0.9 – 1.5 Nasaf expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nasaf to win✓
45%
2.20
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Draw no bet
Nasaf (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Bunyodkor +1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Nasaf to score first
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nasaf / FT Nasaf✗
30%
3.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.27
–
Recent results
Bunyodkor – last 6
LWLWLW
3 May
@ Kokand-1912
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Navbahor
2–1
W
24 Apr
vs Andijan
1–3
L
19 Apr
@ Sogdiana
3–2
W
14 Apr
vs Neftchi
0–1
L
7 Apr
@ Mash'al
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nasaf – last 6
DDLDDW
4 May
vs Navbahor
0–0
D
28 Apr
@ Pakhtakor
2–2
D
23 Apr
vs Lokomotiv
2–3
L
13 Apr
vs Buxoro
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Kokand-1912
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Andijan
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bunyodkor and Nasaf.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Bunyodkor vs Nasaf?
On our numbers Bunyodkor have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Nasaf 45%.
How many goals will there be in Bunyodkor vs Nasaf?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bunyodkor vs Nasaf?
Our predicted score is Bunyodkor 0–1 Nasaf, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bunyodkor vs Nasaf?
Bunyodkor vs Nasaf (Super League) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Milliy Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
