Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 56% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi to win ✓66% · @1.30
Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✓86% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @2.38
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.05
Neftchi vs Buxoro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Neftchi welcome Buxoro to Istiqlol Stadium for a Super League fixture on Thursday 16 July (16:00 WAT). In the table, Neftchi are 1st, leading the league, on 61 points after 26 matches; Buxoro are 7th (upper half) with 42. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Neftchi, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Zenit, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Buxoro, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mash'al, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi 2.0 xG, Buxoro 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi 66%, draw 20%, Buxoro 14%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.38.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi to win (66%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi 2–0 Buxoro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Neftchi66%fair 1.53 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @4.40
Buxoro14%fair 7.06 · @9.00
3.02Expected goals
2.04Neftchi xG
0.98Buxoro xG
56%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Neftchi 2.0 – 1.0 Buxoro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi to win✓
66%
1.53
1.30
Double chance
Neftchi or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
2.38 ▲
Draw no bet
Neftchi (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Neftchi -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
First team to score
Neftchi to score first✗
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Neftchi ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi / FT Neftchi✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Neftchi – last 6
LDWWWL
8 Jul
@ Zenit
1–4
L
3 May
@ Olmaliq
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Kokand-1912
4–0
W
24 Apr
@ Xorazm
2–0
W
14 Apr
@ Bunyodkor
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Pakhtakor
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Buxoro – last 6
WLLDWW
27 Apr
@ Mash'al
1–0
W
22 Apr
vs Pakhtakor
0–1
L
17 Apr
@ Olmaliq
2–3
L
13 Apr
@ Nasaf
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Qizilqum
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Dinamo Samarqand
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi and Buxoro.
Our pick is Neftchi to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Neftchi vs Buxoro?
On our numbers Neftchi have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Buxoro 14%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi vs Buxoro?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi vs Buxoro?
Our predicted score is Neftchi 2–0 Buxoro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Neftchi vs Buxoro?
Neftchi vs Buxoro (Super League) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Istiqlol Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
