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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Jubilo Iwata v Matsumoto Yamaga: numbers & prediction

J2 League · Japan · Yamaha Stadium

Matsumoto Yamaga

Jubilo Iwata 51%Draw 26%Matsumoto Yamaga 23% Expected goals 1.39 – 0.99

73%

Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.34 · Won ✓

8/10Rating

1.34Odds

Picks by market

ResultJubilo Iwata to win ✗51% · @1.70

Double chanceJubilo Iwata or draw ✗77% · @1.21

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.78

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.34

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.29

Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Jubilo Iwata welcome Matsumoto Yamaga to Yamaha Stadium for a J2 League fixture on Saturday 21 February (06:00 WAT).

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Jubilo Iwata 1.4 xG, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Jubilo Iwata 51%, draw 26%, Matsumoto Yamaga 23%.
Lower-risk option: Jubilo Iwata or draw (77%) at 1.21.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.78.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.34). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Jubilo Iwata51%fair 1.98 · @1.70

Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.50

Matsumoto Yamaga23%fair 4.30 · @4.00

2.38Expected goals

1.39Jubilo Iwata xG

0.99Matsumoto Yamaga xG

57%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

1–113%

0–09%

0–19%

2–09%

2–19%

From our goals model: Jubilo Iwata 1.4 – 1.0 Matsumoto Yamaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Jubilo Iwata	Matsumoto Yamaga
Attack vs J2 League average	-5%	+5%
Goals conceded vs average	-17%	-11%
Our expected goals here	1.18	1.05

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Jubilo Iwata to win ✗	51%	1.98	1.70
Double chance	Jubilo Iwata or draw ✗	77%	1.30	1.21
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	57%	1.77	1.78
Draw no bet	Jubilo Iwata (draw no bet) ✗	69%	1.46	–
Asian handicap	Matsumoto Yamaga +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	71%	1.41	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	71%	1.41	1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	53%	1.88	1.88
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	73%	1.36	1.34
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	1.12
First team to score	Jubilo Iwata to score first ✗	53%	1.89	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.22	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Jubilo Iwata / FT Jubilo Iwata ✗	27%	3.70	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.29	–

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Jubilo Iwata and Matsumoto Yamaga.

Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga head-to-head page →

J2 League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

More J2 League predictions

League hub

Shonan Bellmare1

Vanraure Hachinohe0 154%1.90X27%3.25219%3.40 1.6–0.8xG 1XShonan Bellmare or draw 81%@1.27 ✓

Sagamihara1

Blaublitz Akita2 124%4.40X26%3.50250%1.65 1.2–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.31 ✓

–

Thespakusatsu Gunma1

Montedio Yamagata1 Pens 5–5 130%3.30X24%3.30246%1.90 1.2–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.26 ✓

Omiya Ardija6

Fukushima United0 169%1.28X18%5.25212%7.50 2.5–1.1xG 1Omiya Ardija to win 69%@1.28 ✓

–

Parceiro Nagano1

Consadole Sapporo1 Pens 4–5 119%4.75X24%3.60257%1.60 0.9–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.29 ✓

–

Fujieda MYFC1

Ventforet Kofu1 Pens 3–4 141%2.50X25%3.25233%2.40 1.5–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.31 ✓

–

Nara Club2

Ehime FC2 Pens 4–5 136%2.60X26%3.20238%2.35 1.4–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✓

Tegevajaro Miyazaki2

Sagan Tosu1 141%2.90X25%3.40234%2.05 1.8–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.24 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.

Who will win Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

On our numbers Jubilo Iwata have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Matsumoto Yamaga 23%.

How many goals will there be in Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Our predicted score is Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Yamaha Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.