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Kagoshima United v Renofa Yamaguchi: numbers & prediction

J2 League · Japan · Shiranami Stadium

Renofa Yamaguchi

Kagoshima United 45%Draw 25%Renofa Yamaguchi 29% Expected goals 1.67 – 1.23

75%

Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating

1.29Odds

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.77 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultKagoshima United to win ✓45% · @1.98

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.29

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.77

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.29

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.60

Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 22 February the J2 League brings Kagoshima United against Renofa Yamaguchi at Shiranami Stadium. Kick-off: 06:00 WAT.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kagoshima United 1.7 xG, Renofa Yamaguchi 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Kagoshima United 45%, draw 25%, Renofa Yamaguchi 29%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.29). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kagoshima United 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kagoshima United45%fair 2.21 · @1.98

Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.30

Renofa Yamaguchi29%fair 3.39 · @3.10

2.90Expected goals

1.67Kagoshima United xG

1.23Renofa Yamaguchi xG

61%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

2–19%

1–09%

2–08%

1–27%

0–17%

From our goals model: Kagoshima United 1.7 – 1.2 Renofa Yamaguchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Kagoshima United	Renofa Yamaguchi
Attack vs J2 League average	+5%	+11%
Goals conceded vs average	-25%	+0%
Our expected goals here	1.47	0.99

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Kagoshima United to win ✓	45%	2.21	1.98
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.34	1.29
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	61%	1.64	1.77 ▲
Draw no bet	Kagoshima United (draw no bet) ✓	61%	1.65	–
Asian handicap	Renofa Yamaguchi +1 (Asian handicap)	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	75%	1.33	1.29
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	52%	1.92	1.88
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	69%	1.45	1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	1.10
First team to score	Kagoshima United to score first ✓	54%	1.84	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	40%	2.49	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Kagoshima United / FT Kagoshima United ✗	29%	3.47	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.60	–

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Kagoshima United and Renofa Yamaguchi.

Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi head-to-head page →

More J2 League predictions

League hub

Roasso Kumamoto4

Kitakyushu1 155%1.61X26%3.60219%4.50 1.7–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.26 ✓

Yokohama FC5

Tochigi City1 159%1.93X22%3.20219%3.40 2.1–0.9xG 1XYokohama FC or draw 81%@1.27 ✓

Tochigi SC1

Vegalta Sendai2 120%4.33X24%3.40255%1.68 1.0–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.36 ✓

–

FC Gifu0

Iwaki0 Pens 4–4 124%3.60X25%3.50251%1.80 1.1–1.6xG X2Iwaki or draw 76%@1.25 ✓

Imabari2

Osaka0 145%1.82X26%3.30230%3.70 1.2–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.28 ✓

Kamatamare Sanuki0

Albirex Niigata3 122%4.20X24%3.60254%1.65 1.1–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.26 ✓

Tokushima Vortis1

Kataller Toyama3 149%1.40X23%4.20228%6.25 1.6–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.24 ✓

Kochi United3

Kanazawa2 140%2.50X26%3.25235%2.40 1.5–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.31 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.

Who will win Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

On our numbers Kagoshima United have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Renofa Yamaguchi 29%.

How many goals will there be in Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Our predicted score is Kagoshima United 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Shiranami Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Kagoshima United v Renofa Yamaguchi: numbers & prediction