Sagan Tosu vs Kitakyushu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
06:00 WAT, Saturday 14 March: Sagan Tosu v Kitakyushu in the J2 League, played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.
Current form
Sagan Tosu, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Renofa Yamaguchi, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Kitakyushu, last 4: LLLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Tegevajaro Miyazaki, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sagan Tosu 1.8 xG, Kitakyushu 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sagan Tosu 57%, draw 24%, Kitakyushu 18%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sagan Tosu to win (57%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sagan Tosu 1–0 Kitakyushu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sagan Tosu57%fair 1.74 · @1.55
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.60
Kitakyushu18%fair 5.44 · @5.00
2.75Expected goals
1.79Sagan Tosu xG
0.96Kitakyushu xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Sagan Tosu 1.8 – 1.0 Kitakyushu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sagan Tosu
Kitakyushu
Attack vs J2 League average
-13%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
+22%
Our expected goals here
1.49
0.85
Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sagan Tosu to win✓
57%
1.74
1.55
Double chance
Sagan Tosu or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.85
Draw no bet
Sagan Tosu (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Kitakyushu +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Sagan Tosu to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Sagan Tosu ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sagan Tosu / FT Sagan Tosu✓
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Sagan Tosu – last 3
LLL
7 Mar
@ Renofa Yamaguchi
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Kagoshima United
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tegevajaro Miyazaki
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kitakyushu – last 4
LLLL
7 Mar
vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
2–3
L
28 Feb
vs Biwako Shiga
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Roasso Kumamoto
1–4
L
15 Feb
@ Oita Trinita
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sagan Tosu and Kitakyushu.
What is the prediction for Sagan Tosu vs Kitakyushu?
Our pick is Sagan Tosu to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Kitakyushu?
On our numbers Sagan Tosu have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Kitakyushu 18%.
How many goals will there be in Sagan Tosu vs Kitakyushu?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sagan Tosu vs Kitakyushu?
Our predicted score is Sagan Tosu 1–0 Kitakyushu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sagan Tosu vs Kitakyushu?
Sagan Tosu vs Kitakyushu (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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