Matsumoto Yamaga v Iwaki Prediction & Expected Goals (5 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultIwaki to win ✗47% · @1.85

Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.44

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Iwaki travel to face Matsumoto Yamaga on Sunday 5 April in the J2 League, with Sunpro Alwin the venue – the ball rolls at 06:00 WAT.

Current form

Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Fukushima United, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.

Iwaki, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Jubilo Iwata, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 1.3 xG, Iwaki 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 30%, draw 23%, Iwaki 47%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Matsumoto Yamaga to win @3.55 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Iwaki. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Matsumoto Yamaga30%fair 3.29 · @3.55

Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.60

Iwaki47%fair 2.13 · @1.85

2.73Expected goals

1.28Matsumoto Yamaga xG

1.44Iwaki xG

57%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

0–19%

1–29%

1–08%

2–18%

0–27%

From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.3 – 1.4 Iwaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Matsumoto Yamaga	Iwaki
Attack vs J2 League average	+5%	+19%
Goals conceded vs average	-11%	-3%
Our expected goals here	1.42	1.27

Matsumoto Yamaga

Iwaki

Attack vs J2 League average

+5%

+19%

Goals conceded vs average

-11%

-3%

Our expected goals here

1.42

1.27

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Iwaki to win ✗	47%	2.13	1.85
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	77%	1.29	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	57%	1.76	1.67
Draw no bet	Iwaki (draw no bet)	61%	1.65	–
Asian handicap	Matsumoto Yamaga +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	75%	1.33	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.33	1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.94	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	70%	1.43	1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	–
First team to score	Iwaki to score first ✓	49%	2.02	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	42%	2.38	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Iwaki / FT Iwaki ✗	24%	4.18	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.44	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Iwaki to win ✗

47%

2.13

1.85

Double chance

Either team to win ✗

77%

1.29

1.22

Both teams to score

Both teams to score ✓

57%

1.76

1.67

Draw no bet

Iwaki (draw no bet)

61%

1.65

–

Asian handicap

Matsumoto Yamaga +1 (Asian handicap) ✓

75%

1.33

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✓

75%

1.33

1.25

Over/under 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals ✓

52%

1.94

1.80

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals ✗

70%

1.43

1.36

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals ✓

86%

1.16

–

First team to score

Iwaki to score first ✓

49%

2.02

–

Half-time result

Level at half-time ✗

42%

2.38

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Iwaki / FT Iwaki ✗

24%

4.18

–

Correct score

Correct score 1–2 ✗

11.44

–

Recent results

Head to head

J2 League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

Team

Pts

-1

+15

+14

+13

+12

-3

-2

-5

-4

-15

-10

-16

-22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?

On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Iwaki 47%.

How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?

Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Iwaki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

29 Mar	@ Fukushima United	3–1	W
14 Mar	@ Parceiro Nagano	5–0	W
7 Mar	vs Consadole Sapporo	3–0	W
28 Feb	@ Ventforet Kofu	0–1	L
21 Feb	@ Jubilo Iwata	2–1	W
14 Feb	@ Fujieda MYFC	0–2	L

29 Mar	vs Jubilo Iwata	1–0	W
21 Mar	@ Parceiro Nagano	3–1	W
14 Mar	@ Ventforet Kofu	1–0	W
1 Mar	vs Fujieda MYFC	1–2	L
15 Feb	vs Fukushima United	3–1	W

Matsumoto Yamaga v Iwaki: numbers & prediction