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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Matsumoto Yamaga v Ventforet Kofu: numbers & prediction

J2 League · Japan · Sunpro Alwin

Matsumoto Yamaga

LLWWW
0–1
FT

Ventforet Kofu

WWLWL
Matsumoto Yamaga 48%Draw 25%Ventforet Kofu 27% Expected goals 1.61 – 0.93
76%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: Matsumoto Yamaga to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultMatsumoto Yamaga to win ✗48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 3 May the J2 League brings Matsumoto Yamaga against Ventforet Kofu at Sunpro Alwin. Kick-off: 05:03 WAT.

Current form

Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Parceiro Nagano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.

Ventforet Kofu, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Omiya Ardija, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (28 Feb 2026) it ended Ventforet Kofu 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 1.6 xG, Ventforet Kofu 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 48%, draw 25%, Ventforet Kofu 27%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.85.
  • Price worth noting: Matsumoto Yamaga to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 48%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Ventforet Kofu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Matsumoto Yamaga48%fair 2.09 · @2.25
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.10
Ventforet Kofu27%fair 3.72 · @3.10
2.54Expected goals
1.61Matsumoto Yamaga xG
0.93Ventforet Kofu xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%

From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.6 – 0.9 Ventforet Kofu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

Matsumoto YamagaVentforet Kofu
Attack vs J2 League average+5%-28%
Goals conceded vs average-11%+23%
Our expected goals here1.800.77

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMatsumoto Yamaga to win ✗48%2.092.25 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.341.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗57%1.741.85 ▲
Draw no betMatsumoto Yamaga (draw no bet) ✗64%1.56–
Asian handicapVentforet Kofu +1 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗69%1.441.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.801.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.311.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.13–
First team to scoreMatsumoto Yamaga to score first ✗58%1.72–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Matsumoto Yamaga / FT Matsumoto Yamaga ✗32%3.10–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.53–

Recent results

Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6

LLWWWW
26 Aprvs Parceiro Nagano0–1L
18 Apr@ Consadole Sapporo1–2L
12 Aprvs Omiya Ardija4–1W
29 Mar@ Fukushima United3–1W
14 Mar@ Parceiro Nagano5–0W
7 Marvs Consadole Sapporo3–0W
2.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Ventforet Kofu – last 6

WWLWLW
29 Apr@ Omiya Ardija2–1W
25 Apr@ Fukushima United1–0W
18 Aprvs Fujieda MYFC0–1L
11 Aprvs Consadole Sapporo2–1W
4 Apr@ Jubilo Iwata0–1L
28 Marvs Omiya Ardija2–1W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

28 Feb 2026Ventforet Kofu v Matsumoto Yamaga1–0
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu head-to-head page →

J2 League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Albirex Niigata161024-132
2Yokohama FC16943+1531
3Kataller Toyama16943+1431
4Vegalta Sendai16934+1330
5Omiya Ardija16862+1230
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki16853+929
7Consadole Sapporo16826+326
8Iwaki16727+423
9Jubilo Iwata16655+223
10Shonan Bellmare16583+123
11Oita Trinita16574+522
12Blaublitz Akita16556020
13Sagan Tosu16628-320
14Montedio Yamagata16619-219
15Tokushima Vortis16529-517
16Fujieda MYFC16376-416
17Vanraure Hachinohe164210-1514
18Tochigi City163310-1012
19Imabari163310-1612
20Ventforet Kofu163310-2212

More J2 League predictions

League hub
FT Vanraure Hachinohe0 Thespakusatsu Gunma1 147%1.67X24%3.50228%4.75 1.5–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✗
– Montedio Yamagata2 Tochigi SC2 Pens 4–4 140%2.30X28%3.10232%2.70 1.2–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@1.80 ✓
FT Fukushima United1 Omiya Ardija2 119%4.60X22%3.80259%1.55 1.3–2.2xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.70 ✓
FT Albirex Niigata2 Kamatamare Sanuki1 158%1.55X23%3.70218%4.75 1.8–0.9xG 1Albirex Niigata to win 58%@1.55 ✓
FT Imabari1 Nara Club2 147%1.62X23%3.40230%4.75 1.5–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 57%@1.95 ✓
FT Roasso Kumamoto2 Biwako Shiga0 153%1.65X27%3.40219%4.50 1.4–0.8xG 1Roasso Kumamoto to win 53%@1.65 ✓
FT Kitakyushu2 Oita Trinita1 128%3.00X26%3.20245%2.10 1.0–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@1.95 ✓
FT Kanazawa0 Kataller Toyama1 126%3.10X25%3.10248%2.10 1.2–1.8xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@1.91 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu?

On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ventforet Kofu 27%.

How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu?

Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Ventforet Kofu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 05:03 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.