Montedio Yamagata v Tochigi SC Prediction & Expected Goals (3 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMontedio Yamagata to win ✗40% · @2.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.22

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

06:03 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Montedio Yamagata v Tochigi SC in the J2 League, played at ND Soft Stadium Yamagata.

Current form

Montedio Yamagata, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Blaublitz Akita, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Tochigi SC, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Tochigi City, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Head to head

When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended Tochigi SC 1–2 Montedio Yamagata.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Montedio Yamagata 1.2 xG, Tochigi SC 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Montedio Yamagata 40%, draw 28%, Tochigi SC 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Montedio Yamagata 1–1 Tochigi SC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Montedio Yamagata40%fair 2.48 · @2.30

Draw28%fair 3.58 · @3.10

Tochigi SC32%fair 3.15 · @2.70

2.34Expected goals

1.25Montedio Yamagata xG

1.09Tochigi SC xG

56%Both score

41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–111%

0–010%

2–18%

2–08%

From our goals model: Montedio Yamagata 1.2 – 1.1 Tochigi SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Montedio Yamagata	Tochigi SC
Attack vs J2 League average	-27%	-8%
Goals conceded vs average	-13%	+5%
Our expected goals here	1.06	0.95

Montedio Yamagata

Tochigi SC

Attack vs J2 League average

-27%

-8%

Goals conceded vs average

-13%

+5%

Our expected goals here

1.06

0.95

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Montedio Yamagata to win ✗	40%	2.48	2.30
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	72%	1.39	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	56%	1.77	1.80
Draw no bet	Montedio Yamagata (draw no bet)	56%	1.79	–
Asian handicap	Tochigi SC +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	60%	1.66	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	59%	1.71	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	79%	1.26	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	–
First team to score	Montedio Yamagata to score first	48%	2.08	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	46%	2.18	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Montedio Yamagata / FT Montedio Yamagata ✗	23%	4.38	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.22	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Montedio Yamagata to win ✗

40%

2.48

2.30

Double chance

Either team to win ✗

72%

1.39

1.36

Both teams to score

Both teams to score ✓

56%

1.77

1.80

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw no bet)

56%

1.79

–

Asian handicap

Tochigi SC +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓

60%

1.66

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✓

68%

1.48

–

Over/under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals ✗

59%

1.71

–

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals ✗

79%

1.26

–

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals ✓

91%

1.10

–

First team to score

Montedio Yamagata to score first

48%

2.08

–

Half-time result

Level at half-time ✓

46%

2.18

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Montedio Yamagata / FT Montedio Yamagata ✗

23%

4.38

–

Correct score

Correct score 2–1 ✗

12.22

–

Recent results

Head to head

J2 League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

Team

Pts

-1

+15

+14

+13

+12

-3

-2

-5

-4

-15

-10

-16

-22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC?

On our numbers Montedio Yamagata have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Tochigi SC 32%.

How many goals will there be in Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC?

Our predicted score is Montedio Yamagata 1–1 Tochigi SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC?

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 06:03 (West Africa Time) at ND Soft Stadium Yamagata.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

29 Apr	@ Blaublitz Akita	0–2	L
25 Apr	@ Vegalta Sendai	0–1	L
19 Apr	vs Vanraure Hachinohe	1–0	W
12 Apr	vs Yokohama FC	1–0	W
5 Apr	@ Vanraure Hachinohe	2–0	W
29 Mar	vs Tochigi City	1–2	L

25 Apr	@ Tochigi City	1–2	L
19 Apr	vs Sagamihara	0–2	L
12 Apr	vs Thespakusatsu Gunma	5–1	W
8 Apr	vs Vanraure Hachinohe	0–3	L
28 Mar	@ Thespakusatsu Gunma	3–1	W
22 Mar	vs Tochigi City	3–2	W

Montedio Yamagata v Tochigi SC: numbers & prediction