Universidad Catolica 62%Draw 22%Libertad 16%Expected goals 1.70 – 0.88
76%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.20
8/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultUniversidad Catolica to win62% · @1.32
Double chanceUniversidad Catolica or draw84% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.38
Universidad Catolica vs Libertad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Libertad travel to face Universidad Catolica on Saturday 18 April in the Liga Pro – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 54 points after 36 matches; Libertad are 7th with 51. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Universidad Catolica, last 4: DWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Emelec, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Libertad, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Orense SC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Universidad Catolica 1.7 xG, Libertad 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Universidad Catolica 62%, draw 22%, Libertad 16%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Universidad Catolica 1–1 Libertad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Universidad Catolica62%fair 1.60 · @1.32
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @4.85
Libertad16%fair 6.41 · @9.40
2.58Expected goals
1.70Universidad Catolica xG
0.88Libertad xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Universidad Catolica 1.7 – 0.9 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win
62%
1.60
1.32
Double chance
Universidad Catolica or draw
84%
1.18
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.78
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Universidad Catolica (draw no bet)
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Libertad +1.5 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
1.18
First team to score
Universidad Catolica to score first
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Universidad Catolica – last 4
DWDL
9 Apr
vs Emelec
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ LDU de Quito
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Juventud
3–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
LDDLWL
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
5 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universidad Catolica and Libertad.
What is the prediction for Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
On our numbers Universidad Catolica have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Libertad 16%.
How many goals will there be in Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Universidad Catolica 1–1 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
Universidad Catolica vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
