Independiente del Valle 73%Draw 17%Leones del Norte 10%Expected goals 2.14 – 0.65
76%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win73% · @1.22
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw90% · @1.03
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–010% · fair 9.91
Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente del Valle welcome Leones del Norte to Estadio Banco Guayaquil for a Liga Pro fixture on Saturday 25 April (20:10 WAT). In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 84 points after 35 matches; Leones del Norte are 9th with 47. There are 37 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Delfin SC, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Leones del Norte, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Manta FC, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Leones del Norte.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 2.1 xG, Leones del Norte 0.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 73%, draw 17%, Leones del Norte 10%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Leones del Norte. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle73%fair 1.37 · @1.22
Draw17%fair 5.79 · @5.25
Leones del Norte10%fair 10.49 · @16.50
2.79Expected goals
2.14Independiente del Valle xG
0.65Leones del Norte xG
47%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.1 – 0.6 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
73%
1.37
1.22
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw
90%
1.11
1.03
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
53%
1.89
1.44
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)
88%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0
10%
9.91
–
Recent results
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWDLWW
22 Apr
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Leones del Norte – last 6
WLLWDL
22 Apr
vs Manta FC
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Mar
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and Leones del Norte.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Leones del Norte 10%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 20:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
