Leones del Norte 42%Draw 28%Emelec 30%Expected goals 1.21 – 0.94
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
Picks by market
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✓42% · @2.44
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.44
Leones del Norte vs Emelec: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Leones del Norte v Emelec in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Emelec are 10th with 45. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Leones del Norte, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Manta FC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Emelec, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over LDU de Quito, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 1.2 xG, Emelec 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 42%, draw 28%, Emelec 30%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 1–1 Emelec. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte42%fair 2.39 · @2.44
Draw28%fair 3.58 · @3.05
Emelec30%fair 3.31 · @2.98
2.16Expected goals
1.21Leones del Norte xG
0.94Emelec xG
52%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.2 – 0.9 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones del Norte to win✓
42%
2.39
2.44
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.00
Draw no bet
Leones del Norte (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Emelec +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
1.05
First team to score
Leones del Norte to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones del Norte / FT Leones del Norte✓
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.44
–
Recent results
Leones del Norte – last 6
WLLWDL
22 Apr
vs Manta FC
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Mar
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Emelec – last 6
WWLLDL
25 Apr
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–0
W
18 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–3
L
13 Apr
@ Aucas
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Emelec.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Emelec 30%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–1 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Leones del Norte vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
