Value bet: Libertad to win @ 3.65 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAucas to win ✗41% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.59
Libertad vs Aucas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 2 May the Liga Pro brings Libertad against Aucas at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Kick-off: 01:00 WAT. In the table, Libertad are 7th on 51 points after 36 matches; Aucas are 5th with 54. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Libertad, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Guayaquil City FC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Aucas, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Delfin SC, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Aucas, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.8 for Libertad.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Libertad 1.2 xG, Aucas 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad 34%, draw 26%, Aucas 41%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Libertad to win @3.65 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad 1–1 Aucas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Libertad34%fair 2.98 · @3.65
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.50
Aucas41%fair 2.44 · @1.97
2.30Expected goals
1.19Libertad xG
1.11Aucas xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.2 – 1.1 Aucas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aucas to win✗
41%
2.44
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Draw no bet
Aucas (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Aucas +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
1.09
First team to score
Libertad to score first✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✓
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.59
–
Recent results
Libertad – last 6
LLDDLW
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Aucas – last 6
WDWWWW
28 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ LDU de Quito
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Leones del Norte
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Emelec
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
24 Mar
vs Orense SC
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Aucas.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Libertad vs Aucas?
On our numbers Libertad have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Aucas 41%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Aucas?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Aucas?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–1 Aucas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Aucas?
Libertad vs Aucas (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
