Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones del Norte welcome Independiente del Valle to Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra for a Liga Pro fixture on Saturday 22 August (01:00 WAT). In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 37 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Leones del Norte, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Manta FC, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportes Tolima, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.3 for Leones del Norte.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 0.8 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 17%, draw 21%, Independiente del Valle 62%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (83%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 0–2 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte17%fair 5.78 · @5.30
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.65
Independiente del Valle62%fair 1.62 · @1.65
2.64Expected goals
0.82Leones del Norte xG
1.82Independiente del Valle xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 0.8 – 1.8 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
62%
1.62
1.65
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.90
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
1.09
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✗
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.31
–
Recent results
Leones del Norte – last 6
WLDLWD
15 Aug
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
8 Aug
@ Aucas
0–3
L
3 Aug
vs Barcelona SC
1–1
D
30 Jul
@ LDU de Quito
0–6
L
26 Jul
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Jul
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWWW
19 Aug
@ Deportes Tolima
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs Delfin SC
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ LDU de Quito
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
30 Jul
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Orense SC
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Independiente del Valle 62%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 0–2 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
