Value bet: Maardu to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNõmme United II to win ✗46% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · fair 1.64
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.44
Maardu vs Nõmme United II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
10:30 WAT, Saturday 9 May: Maardu v Nõmme United II in the Esiliiga A. In the table, Maardu are 6th, lower half, on 45 points after 33 matches; Nõmme United II are 9th (in the drop zone) with 40.
Current form
Maardu, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Flora II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Nõmme United II, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 4–4 draw with Tallinna Kalev, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Nõmme United II, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Maardu.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Mar 2026) it ended Nõmme United II 4–1 Maardu.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Maardu 2.0 xG, Nõmme United II 1.9 xG – a total near 3.9. That is an open game on paper: 75% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Maardu 35%, draw 19%, Nõmme United II 46%.
Price worth noting: Maardu to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Maardu 2–1 Nõmme United II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Maardu35%fair 2.82 · @3.10
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @4.20
Nõmme United II46%fair 2.18 · @1.80
3.87Expected goals
1.96Maardu xG
1.90Nõmme United II xG
61%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–18%
2–18%
1–27%
2–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Maardu 2.0 – 1.9 Nõmme United II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
On our numbers Maardu have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Nõmme United II 46%.
How many goals will there be in Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
Our predicted score is Maardu 2–1 Nõmme United II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
Maardu vs Nõmme United II (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
