Value bet: Maardu to win @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMaardu to win ✓51% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.68
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.34
Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Saturday 1 August: Nõmme Kalju II v Maardu in the Esiliiga A, played at Hiiu Stadium. In the table, Nõmme Kalju II are 10th, in the drop zone, on 24 points after 36 matches; Maardu are 6th (lower half) with 45. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju II, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Flora II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.0 conceded per game.
Maardu, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Flora II, away. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Maardu, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.3 for Nõmme Kalju II.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Jun 2026) it ended Maardu 2–1 Nõmme Kalju II. The last 2 head-to-heads: Nõmme Kalju II 1 win, Maardu 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 4.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nõmme Kalju II 1.5 xG, Maardu 2.3 xG – a total near 3.8. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 75% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nõmme Kalju II 29%, draw 20%, Maardu 51%.
Price worth noting: Maardu to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Maardu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nõmme Kalju II29%fair 3.44 · @2.50
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @4.20
Maardu51%fair 1.95 · @2.10
3.83Expected goals
1.51Nõmme Kalju II xG
2.31Maardu xG
60%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
2–27%
0–26%
2–16%
From our goals model: Nõmme Kalju II 1.5 – 2.3 Maardu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
On our numbers Nõmme Kalju II have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Maardu 51%.
How many goals will there be in Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
Our predicted score is Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Maardu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Hiiu Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
